Anybody using today’s political logic in 1868 would have concluded that Reconstruction in the South was permanent. Absolutely every kind of arithmetic and political logic said so.
A major portion of the Southern white male population was dead. All its natural leadership, consisting of men who had held the rank of Colonel or above in the Confederate Army, was disfranchised. In the Deep South, blacks were a majority before the decimation of the white males in the War. In other Southern states the mountain vote was Republican.
And as today a huge segment of the white population was anti-white.
Now let us add the “practical” considerations. Federal occupation secured the entire Southern vote for the Republicans who ruled in Washington.
What in the HELL could change all that?
Logically, nothing could.
The Soviet Empire simply could not just vanish. Nothing was less likely in 1981.
What happened to the USSR was simply that it existed on force. What happened to Reconstruction was that it existed on force.
The Soviet Empire was a constant effort. Reconstruction was a constant effort. Our rule in Iraq is a constant effort. Robert Ardrey pointed out in the 1970s that, for some reason, occupations do not last.
Most people are deeply impressed by the all-out effort, the vast dedication, and the forces that are dedicated to multiracialism.
To me that sheer effort is the sure sign that it is doomed.
We have been this way before.
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